🔗 Share this article A Prediction Market Participant Made $436,000 on Wagers on Venezuela's Political Shift. In this photo illustration, a Polymarket logo is seen displayed on a smartphone. An individual earned a substantial sum on the ouster of Venezuela's president just before it was publicly declared, sparking debate about the possibility of profiting from inside knowledge of the event. Sudden Shift in Wagers Wagers on Polymarket, a crypto-powered platform, that Nicolás Maduro would be out of power by the month's conclusion rose in the hours before Donald Trump declared on Saturday that Maduro had been taken into custody. A single trader, which registered on the site in December and placed four wagers, all on the Venezuelan situation, earned over $nearly half a million from a starting bet of $32.5K. Who placed the bet is a mystery. The user had only a cryptographic address for identification. Market Signals Before Public Statement Market statistics shows that users assessed the probability of the president's removal at just 6.5% in the midday period of the Friday before the event. But the odds had jumped to 11% by the end of the day and spiked dramatically in the early hours of January 3rd, suggesting a rapid movement in betting activity right before the public announcement was made. "This particular bet has all the hallmarks of a bet based on confidential knowledge," said a financial reform advocate. A small number of other platform users also profited tens of thousands of dollars from similar wagers. Legal Questions Emerges Elected officials are starting to take note. A new rule presented on Monday would prevent federal workers from making trades on prediction markets if they have "material nonpublic information" related to a bet. The Prediction Market Landscape Prediction markets have surged in popularity in recent years, with users able to predict everything from elections to politics. Prediction markets were examined under the Biden administration. But it has experienced less resistance during the current presidency. Using confidential knowledge is illegal in the securities markets, but there are fewer regulations in the prediction market space. A spokesperson for a competing service said their site "has clear rules against trading on insider information of any form."