Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the country and unleashed chaos, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the political, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the absence of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or advocates want to engage even with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer supports unity or the current situation. Both writes two pieces that seek neutrality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and social data, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, levies, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented the writer. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the idea that there might be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate report they favour unification but reject increased taxation or implementing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a negligent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid arguments, he said. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will eventually be defeated but each side has has important lessons to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
